Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BOC International (China) Co. Ltd. (601696.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.19 - $3.04$2.62
Multi-Stage$8.25 - $9.16$8.69
Blended Fair Value$5.66
Current Price$14.36
Upside-60.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.64%-7.19%0.130.090.140.220.180.250.280.270.490.13
YoY Growth--41.69%-33.87%-35.84%25.13%-28.40%-10.91%2.16%-44.78%286.88%-54.72%
Dividend Yield--1.27%0.92%1.32%1.65%1.00%1.16%3.52%3.45%6.24%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,099.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)888.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.97137.4882.49
Cash Retained (M)888.88888.88888.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.97-137.48-82.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)668.91751.40806.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.082,787.082,787.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Fair Value$2.19$2.62$3.04
Upside / Downside-84.75%-81.77%-78.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,099.871,025.77956.66892.20832.09776.03799.31
Payout Ratio19.18%33.35%47.51%61.67%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.99342.06454.51550.25631.03698.43739.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)320.55324.03327.50
Year 2 PV (M)399.15407.85416.65
Year 3 PV (M)452.86467.74482.95
Year 4 PV (M)486.69508.13530.28
Year 5 PV (M)504.80532.76561.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,837.8621,991.8823,196.47
Equity Value (M)23,001.9224,232.3925,515.78
Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.082,787.082,787.08
Fair Value$8.25$8.69$9.16
Upside / Downside-42.53%-39.45%-36.25%

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