Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. (601233.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.49 - $146.48$137.27
Multi-Stage$22.90 - $25.05$23.96
Blended Fair Value$80.61
Current Price$15.01
Upside437.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.41%20.10%0.690.510.330.410.360.290.280.250.110.08
YoY Growth--34.81%54.90%-18.52%13.71%25.48%1.37%10.37%139.28%25.35%-23.36%
Dividend Yield--5.91%3.64%2.31%2.33%1.73%2.43%1.77%1.62%0.98%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,743.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)880.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)348.77217.98130.79
Cash Retained (M)862.92862.92862.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-348.77-217.98-130.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)514.15644.94732.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,367.662,367.662,367.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.49$137.27$146.48
Upside / Downside396.30%814.52%875.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,743.831,857.181,977.902,106.462,243.382,389.202,460.88
Payout Ratio50.52%58.41%66.31%74.21%82.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)880.911,084.831,311.541,563.131,841.892,150.282,276.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,010.631,020.211,029.78
Year 2 PV (M)1,138.251,159.931,181.82
Year 3 PV (M)1,263.811,300.091,337.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,387.331,440.681,495.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,508.831,581.701,657.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,901.7050,215.3752,617.59
Equity Value (M)54,210.5456,717.9859,319.17
Shares Outstanding (M)2,367.662,367.662,367.66
Fair Value$22.90$23.96$25.05
Upside / Downside52.54%59.60%66.91%

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