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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Environment Group Co., Ltd (601200.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.01 - $87.88$82.36
Multi-Stage$12.51 - $13.68$13.09
Blended Fair Value$47.72
Current Price$7.97
Upside498.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.91%14.17%0.310.080.370.070.060.040.040.090.120.13
YoY Growth--276.86%-77.47%421.26%22.19%30.91%6.31%-55.91%-20.03%-11.03%59.47%
Dividend Yield--3.91%1.10%4.76%0.80%0.60%0.45%0.40%0.79%0.63%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)594.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)337.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.9574.3544.61
Cash Retained (M)256.91256.91256.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.95-74.35-44.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.95182.56212.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,345.941,345.941,345.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.01$82.36$87.88
Upside / Downside301.60%933.37%1,002.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)594.77633.43674.61718.46765.16814.89839.34
Payout Ratio56.81%63.44%70.08%76.72%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)337.86401.88472.79551.22637.84733.40776.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)373.23376.77380.30
Year 2 PV (M)407.78415.55423.39
Year 3 PV (M)441.53454.21467.12
Year 4 PV (M)474.50492.75511.51
Year 5 PV (M)506.69531.16556.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,634.4515,341.3016,075.20
Equity Value (M)16,838.1817,611.7318,414.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,345.941,345.941,345.94
Fair Value$12.51$13.09$13.68
Upside / Downside56.97%64.18%71.66%

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