Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Eastern Air Logistics Co., Ltd. (601156.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$136.61 - $326.73$306.20
Multi-Stage$48.05 - $52.59$50.28
Blended Fair Value$178.24
Current Price$15.75
Upside1,031.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.04%0.00%0.390.360.690.000.340.160.270.020.010.00
YoY Growth--8.32%-48.47%151,897.37%-99.87%112.50%-41.07%1,568.83%34.53%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.74%1.95%4.56%0.00%1.51%0.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,621.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,074.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,546.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)524.31327.69196.62
Cash Retained (M)1,546.781,546.781,546.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-524.31-327.69-196.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,022.471,219.081,350.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,595.671,595.671,595.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.760.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.760.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$136.61$306.20$326.73
Upside / Downside767.38%1,844.11%1,974.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,621.552,791.952,973.433,166.703,372.543,591.753,699.51
Payout Ratio41.00%50.80%60.60%70.40%80.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,074.781,418.261,801.862,229.332,704.763,232.583,422.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,319.011,331.511,344.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,558.491,588.181,618.14
Year 3 PV (M)1,793.291,844.771,897.22
Year 4 PV (M)2,023.472,101.292,181.33
Year 5 PV (M)2,249.102,357.742,470.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,736.1971,007.8874,404.78
Equity Value (M)76,679.5680,231.3683,916.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,595.671,595.671,595.67
Fair Value$48.05$50.28$52.59
Upside / Downside205.11%219.24%233.90%

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