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Definitive Analysis

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Caitong Securities Co.,Ltd. (601108.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.42 - $47.75$24.67
Multi-Stage$13.74 - $15.05$14.39
Blended Fair Value$19.53
Current Price$8.42
Upside131.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.66%22.56%0.350.330.420.370.310.270.300.160.150.21
YoY Growth--5.43%-21.23%14.86%17.75%17.27%-10.42%84.14%7.40%-27.14%349.79%
Dividend Yield--4.50%4.39%5.62%4.54%2.94%2.76%2.31%1.10%0.96%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,905.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,114.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,791.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)581.06363.16217.90
Cash Retained (M)1,791.281,791.281,791.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-581.06-363.16-217.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,210.221,428.111,573.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,850.174,850.174,850.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$15.42$24.67$47.75
Upside / Downside83.14%192.98%467.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,905.323,047.633,196.923,353.533,517.803,690.133,800.83
Payout Ratio38.34%48.68%59.01%69.34%79.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,114.041,483.461,886.412,325.272,802.603,321.113,515.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)1,371.561,384.761,397.97
Year 2 PV (M)1,612.561,643.751,675.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,837.771,891.351,945.96
Year 4 PV (M)2,047.952,127.942,210.25
Year 5 PV (M)2,243.792,353.872,468.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,550.8760,374.2763,307.41
Equity Value (M)66,664.5169,775.9573,005.05
Shares Outstanding (M)4,850.174,850.174,850.17
Fair Value$13.74$14.39$15.05
Upside / Downside63.24%70.86%78.77%

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