Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhewen Interactive Group Co., Ltd. (600986.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.45 - $16.09$7.72
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.58$5.32
Blended Fair Value$6.52
Current Price$8.24
Upside-20.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.30%4.55%0.070.020.030.030.020.040.060.050.050.05
YoY Growth--222.93%-18.33%10.06%30.85%-48.64%-39.61%31.76%-0.13%-11.83%14.17%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.43%0.42%0.40%0.48%1.07%1.05%0.58%0.41%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3515.849.51
Cash Retained (M)9.159.159.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.35-15.84-9.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.20-6.69-0.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.561,523.561,523.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate4.53%4.53%4.53%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Fair Value$3.45$7.72$16.09
Upside / Downside-58.10%-6.35%95.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.75131.25135.91140.73145.72150.90155.42
Payout Ratio92.78%92.22%91.67%91.11%90.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.60121.04124.58128.22131.96135.81143.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.53%4.53%4.53%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)114.68115.80116.92
Year 2 PV (M)111.83114.03116.24
Year 3 PV (M)109.05112.28115.56
Year 4 PV (M)106.34110.55114.88
Year 5 PV (M)103.69108.84114.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,192.677,550.277,921.95
Equity Value (M)7,738.278,111.768,499.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.561,523.561,523.56
Fair Value$5.08$5.32$5.58
Upside / Downside-38.36%-35.39%-32.30%

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