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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Company Limited (600874.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.27 - $105.02$98.42
Multi-Stage$14.86 - $16.25$15.54
Blended Fair Value$56.98
Current Price$5.94
Upside859.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.23%8.67%0.420.380.130.110.100.220.100.160.170.19
YoY Growth--8.59%188.97%21.67%12.15%-56.52%115.11%-33.31%-6.96%-11.88%4.88%
Dividend Yield--7.16%6.73%2.25%1.46%1.38%3.12%1.00%1.10%2.05%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)831.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)395.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)436.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.30103.9462.36
Cash Retained (M)436.13436.13436.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.30-103.94-62.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)269.83332.19373.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,574.601,574.601,574.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.27$98.42$105.02
Upside / Downside544.28%1,556.94%1,668.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)831.52885.57943.131,004.441,069.731,139.261,173.44
Payout Ratio47.55%56.04%64.53%73.02%81.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)395.39496.28608.61733.44871.931,025.331,085.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)460.90465.27469.64
Year 2 PV (M)524.93534.93545.02
Year 3 PV (M)587.51604.37621.56
Year 4 PV (M)648.65673.60699.26
Year 5 PV (M)708.40742.61778.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,463.6321,452.0322,478.26
Equity Value (M)23,394.0124,472.8125,591.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,574.601,574.601,574.60
Fair Value$14.86$15.54$16.25
Upside / Downside150.12%161.65%173.62%

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