Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. (600801.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.11 - $30.63$23.57
Multi-Stage$35.76 - $39.31$37.50
Blended Fair Value$30.54
Current Price$18.50
Upside65.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.90%9.01%0.820.810.961.031.160.790.430.320.260.37
YoY Growth--2.22%-15.87%-7.41%-10.59%46.93%83.47%33.22%25.48%-30.20%5.81%
Dividend Yield--5.93%5.76%6.16%5.24%4.87%3.38%2.47%3.03%3.63%5.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,281.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,577.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,704.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)656.33410.21246.12
Cash Retained (M)1,704.551,704.551,704.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-656.33-410.21-246.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,048.221,294.351,458.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,187.192,187.192,187.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Fair Value$18.11$23.57$30.63
Upside / Downside-2.10%27.43%65.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,281.653,304.893,328.283,351.853,375.583,399.473,501.46
Payout Ratio48.06%56.45%64.83%73.22%81.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,577.101,865.492,157.892,454.332,754.863,059.533,238.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)1,737.241,754.661,772.09
Year 2 PV (M)1,871.381,909.101,947.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,982.132,042.372,103.81
Year 4 PV (M)2,071.882,156.262,243.19
Year 5 PV (M)2,142.822,252.452,366.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,402.5171,902.1575,543.59
Equity Value (M)78,207.9682,016.9985,976.40
Shares Outstanding (M)2,187.192,187.192,187.19
Fair Value$35.76$37.50$39.31
Upside / Downside93.28%102.70%112.48%

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