Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd. (600660.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$283.27 - $692.58$649.05
Multi-Stage$102.03 - $111.60$106.73
Blended Fair Value$377.89
Current Price$73.41
Upside414.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.96%11.53%1.421.381.110.870.850.891.270.810.780.66
YoY Growth--3.25%23.70%27.65%2.64%-3.93%-30.06%56.48%3.72%18.70%37.47%
Dividend Yield--2.43%3.08%3.21%2.45%1.85%4.62%5.12%3.27%3.45%4.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,083.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,845.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,237.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,816.611,135.38681.23
Cash Retained (M)4,237.954,237.954,237.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,816.61-1,135.38-681.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,421.343,102.573,556.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,608.212,608.212,608.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.191.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.861.861.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.191.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.793.053.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$283.27$649.05$692.58
Upside / Downside285.87%784.14%843.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,083.059,673.4410,302.2210,971.8611,685.0312,444.5612,817.90
Payout Ratio53.34%60.67%68.01%75.34%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,845.105,869.247,006.068,265.869,659.8311,200.1011,856.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,457.355,509.085,560.81
Year 2 PV (M)6,057.226,172.606,289.06
Year 3 PV (M)6,644.896,835.647,030.01
Year 4 PV (M)7,220.537,498.227,783.83
Year 5 PV (M)7,784.348,160.328,550.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)232,942.29244,193.49255,875.30
Equity Value (M)266,106.63278,369.35291,089.71
Shares Outstanding (M)2,608.212,608.212,608.21
Fair Value$102.03$106.73$111.60
Upside / Downside38.98%45.39%52.03%

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