Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Huayi Group Corporation Limited (600623.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.96 - $9.16$6.69
Multi-Stage$8.54 - $9.37$8.95
Blended Fair Value$7.82
Current Price$8.77
Upside-10.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.55%-0.37%0.380.310.640.190.270.530.390.230.230.39
YoY Growth--23.36%-51.96%234.93%-29.90%-48.77%34.09%70.51%2.34%-41.26%-1.59%
Dividend Yield--5.17%4.85%9.21%2.24%3.93%9.89%3.92%2.35%1.98%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)702.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)422.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)280.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.5187.8252.69
Cash Retained (M)280.00280.00280.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.51-87.82-52.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)139.48192.18227.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,060.752,060.752,060.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Fair Value$4.96$6.69$9.16
Upside / Downside-43.40%-23.71%4.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)702.57715.32728.30741.52754.98768.68791.74
Payout Ratio60.15%66.12%72.09%78.06%84.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)422.57472.95525.02578.82634.40691.81732.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)440.33444.69449.06
Year 2 PV (M)455.08464.16473.32
Year 3 PV (M)467.11481.15495.46
Year 4 PV (M)476.65495.84515.61
Year 5 PV (M)483.93508.41533.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,272.0016,044.6016,848.16
Equity Value (M)17,595.0918,438.8519,315.49
Shares Outstanding (M)2,060.752,060.752,060.75
Fair Value$8.54$8.95$9.37
Upside / Downside-2.64%2.03%6.88%

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