Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guizhou Zhongyida Co., Ltd (600610.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.81 - $1.73$1.15
Multi-Stage$0.59 - $0.64$0.61
Blended Fair Value$0.88
Current Price$11.41
Upside-92.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.16%4.15%0.010.010.010.010.010.000.000.010.000.00
YoY Growth--50.65%25.71%-25.81%-0.31%166.72%7,182.46%-99.43%207.99%-12.95%-63.88%
Dividend Yield--0.13%0.14%0.05%0.07%0.15%0.07%0.00%0.17%0.03%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.225.763.46
Cash Retained (M)40.8940.8940.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.22-5.76-3.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.6735.1337.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,073.171,073.171,073.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$0.81$1.15$1.73
Upside / Downside-92.89%-89.90%-84.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.1049.1052.2955.6959.3163.1765.06
Payout Ratio11.31%27.05%42.79%58.52%74.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.2113.2822.3732.5944.0556.8560.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.9612.0812.19
Year 2 PV (M)18.1518.5018.85
Year 3 PV (M)23.8224.5125.20
Year 4 PV (M)29.0030.1131.26
Year 5 PV (M)33.7235.3437.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)511.89536.62562.29
Equity Value (M)628.55657.16686.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,073.171,073.171,073.17
Fair Value$0.59$0.61$0.64
Upside / Downside-94.87%-94.63%-94.39%

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