Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aeolus Tyre Co., Ltd. (600469.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.28 - $7.59$5.68
Multi-Stage$7.48 - $8.21$7.84
Blended Fair Value$6.76
Current Price$5.81
Upside16.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.04%3.92%0.340.100.090.130.040.170.170.240.620.37
YoY Growth--243.13%14.16%-32.24%225.42%-77.67%1.05%-26.97%-61.99%67.84%61.75%
Dividend Yield--5.76%1.67%1.65%2.93%0.71%3.62%3.59%4.85%5.21%3.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.7628.6017.16
Cash Retained (M)87.9487.9487.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.76-28.60-17.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.1959.3570.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.53717.53717.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Fair Value$4.28$5.68$7.59
Upside / Downside-26.26%-2.20%30.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.78232.33235.94239.60243.31247.09254.50
Payout Ratio61.56%67.25%72.94%78.62%84.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.84156.24172.08188.38205.14222.38235.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Year 1 PV (M)145.21146.65148.10
Year 2 PV (M)148.64151.61154.61
Year 3 PV (M)151.23155.79160.43
Year 4 PV (M)153.06159.24165.60
Year 5 PV (M)154.20162.02170.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,614.434,848.495,091.96
Equity Value (M)5,366.765,623.805,890.86
Shares Outstanding (M)717.53717.53717.53
Fair Value$7.48$7.84$8.21
Upside / Downside28.74%34.90%41.31%

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