Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers Co.,Ltd. (600428.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.92 - $143.61$103.39
Multi-Stage$17.28 - $18.92$18.08
Blended Fair Value$60.74
Current Price$6.67
Upside810.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.00%17.81%0.330.270.130.090.120.140.150.110.090.09
YoY Growth--22.08%100.96%42.00%-19.03%-18.88%-1.26%36.29%20.65%-0.93%39.93%
Dividend Yield--4.91%4.58%2.12%2.13%2.97%4.55%3.16%2.26%1.21%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,657.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)113.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,543.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)331.47207.17124.30
Cash Retained (M)1,543.361,543.361,543.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-331.47-207.17-124.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.891,336.191,419.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,295.142,295.142,295.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.92$103.39$143.61
Upside / Downside453.50%1,450.15%2,053.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,657.341,765.061,879.792,001.982,132.112,270.692,338.82
Payout Ratio6.88%23.50%40.13%56.75%73.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)113.98414.82754.291,136.141,564.442,043.632,163.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)383.50387.14390.77
Year 2 PV (M)644.69656.97669.37
Year 3 PV (M)897.75923.52949.78
Year 4 PV (M)1,142.851,186.801,232.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,380.191,446.851,516.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,199.8336,900.0038,665.23
Equity Value (M)39,648.8141,501.2843,423.22
Shares Outstanding (M)2,295.142,295.142,295.14
Fair Value$17.28$18.08$18.92
Upside / Downside159.00%171.10%183.65%

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