Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tibet Summit Resources Co.,Ltd. (600338.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.33 - $3.15$2.75
Multi-Stage$4.34 - $4.78$4.55
Blended Fair Value$3.65
Current Price$13.46
Upside-72.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.29%31.51%0.160.010.100.170.050.200.480.430.000.01
YoY Growth--1,966.17%-92.56%-40.66%283.56%-77.03%-58.41%10.47%13,635.34%-59.78%-24.05%
Dividend Yield--1.57%0.08%0.45%0.66%0.43%2.51%2.64%1.86%0.01%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.3855.8733.52
Cash Retained (M)288.52288.52288.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.38-55.87-33.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.14232.66255.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)914.22914.22914.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-6.29%-5.29%-4.29%
Fair Value$2.33$2.75$3.15
Upside / Downside-82.70%-79.58%-76.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.92423.28400.89379.68359.60340.58350.79
Payout Ratio35.44%46.35%57.27%68.18%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.40196.21229.57258.86284.40306.52324.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-6.29%-5.29%-4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)177.37179.26181.15
Year 2 PV (M)187.60191.63195.70
Year 3 PV (M)191.23197.41203.73
Year 4 PV (M)189.93198.16206.67
Year 5 PV (M)185.04195.13205.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,035.613,201.073,373.67
Equity Value (M)3,966.784,162.674,366.57
Shares Outstanding (M)914.22914.22914.22
Fair Value$4.34$4.55$4.78
Upside / Downside-67.76%-66.17%-64.51%

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