Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD. (600269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.32 - $24.52$17.09
Multi-Stage$19.58 - $21.51$20.53
Blended Fair Value$18.81
Current Price$4.85
Upside287.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.59%-1.18%0.300.290.310.410.420.420.470.440.440.43
YoY Growth--0.71%-3.37%-25.45%-3.52%1.61%-11.51%7.27%-0.87%3.44%28.33%
Dividend Yield--5.78%6.47%9.00%11.34%11.85%12.03%10.17%9.14%8.16%8.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,755.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)539.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,215.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)351.11219.44131.67
Cash Retained (M)1,215.751,215.751,215.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-351.11-219.44-131.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)864.64996.311,084.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$12.32$17.09$24.52
Upside / Downside153.97%252.33%405.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,755.541,796.001,837.391,879.741,923.061,967.382,026.40
Payout Ratio30.75%42.60%54.45%66.30%78.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)539.79765.061,000.441,246.251,502.861,770.641,874.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)713.28720.32727.36
Year 2 PV (M)869.59886.85904.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,009.941,040.141,070.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,135.461,180.961,227.82
Year 5 PV (M)1,247.231,310.021,375.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,115.2143,184.9545,337.22
Equity Value (M)46,090.7148,323.2450,642.92
Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
Fair Value$19.58$20.53$21.51
Upside / Downside303.70%323.25%343.57%

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