Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Liuzhou Liangmianzhen Co., Ltd. (600249.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.22 - $0.31$0.27
Multi-Stage$0.35 - $0.39$0.37
Blended Fair Value$0.32
Current Price$5.86
Upside-94.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.52%-6.43%0.030.000.000.010.010.030.040.050.090.10
YoY Growth--871.48%-5.16%-26.82%-13.79%-81.45%-12.83%-25.04%-44.07%-12.41%48.99%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.07%0.07%0.08%0.11%0.79%0.67%0.85%0.75%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.112.571.54
Cash Retained (M)18.4318.4318.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.11-2.57-1.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.3215.8616.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)550.00550.00550.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-3.19%-2.19%-1.19%
Fair Value$0.22$0.27$0.31
Upside / Downside-96.18%-95.42%-94.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.5720.1219.6819.2518.8318.4218.97
Payout Ratio10.39%26.31%42.24%58.16%74.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.145.298.3111.1913.9516.5717.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-3.19%-2.19%-1.19%
Year 1 PV (M)4.784.824.87
Year 2 PV (M)6.766.907.04
Year 3 PV (M)8.218.478.73
Year 4 PV (M)9.239.6110.01
Year 5 PV (M)9.8910.4110.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)155.09163.27171.79
Equity Value (M)193.95203.48213.40
Shares Outstanding (M)550.00550.00550.00
Fair Value$0.35$0.37$0.39
Upside / Downside-93.98%-93.69%-93.38%

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