Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Giti Tire Corporation (600182.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.41 - $81.69$76.55
Multi-Stage$12.33 - $13.47$12.89
Blended Fair Value$44.72
Current Price$15.42
Upside190.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.21%-1.71%0.340.040.110.150.210.200.230.521.010.66
YoY Growth--879.11%-67.38%-27.26%-28.27%2.08%-11.47%-56.09%-48.49%53.53%60.88%
Dividend Yield--2.22%0.25%0.81%1.13%1.42%1.55%1.29%2.01%3.57%3.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.9217.4510.47
Cash Retained (M)14.0014.0014.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.92-17.45-10.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.92-3.453.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.93339.93339.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.41$76.55$81.69
Upside / Downside116.66%396.44%429.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.62148.70158.36168.66179.62191.30197.03
Payout Ratio89.97%89.98%89.98%89.99%89.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.62133.79142.50151.77161.65172.17182.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.40125.58126.76
Year 2 PV (M)123.20125.55127.92
Year 3 PV (M)122.01125.51129.08
Year 4 PV (M)120.83125.48130.25
Year 5 PV (M)119.66125.44131.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,580.723,753.673,933.24
Equity Value (M)4,190.824,381.224,578.69
Shares Outstanding (M)339.93339.93339.93
Fair Value$12.33$12.89$13.47
Upside / Downside-20.05%-16.42%-12.65%

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