Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $7.96 - $14.54 | $10.69 |
| Multi-Stage | $14.21 - $15.59 | $14.88 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.79 | |
| Current Price | $7.41 | |
| Upside | 72.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 16.57% | 13.22% | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 66.75% | 0.00% | -0.12% | 149.99% | -48.30% | 25.00% | 12.00% | -37.50% | 83.83% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 10.22% | 6.93% | 7.59% | 7.31% | 2.44% | 6.02% | 4.59% | 4.52% | 6.16% | 3.09% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,604.67 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,225.30 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 379.38 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 520.93 | 325.58 | 195.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 379.38 | 379.38 | 379.38 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -520.93 | -325.58 | -195.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -141.56 | 53.79 | 184.03 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,673.01 | 4,673.01 | 4,673.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 0.70% | 1.70% | 2.70% |
| Fair Value | $7.96 | $10.69 | $14.54 |
| Upside / Downside | 7.42% | 44.23% | 96.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,604.67 | 2,648.85 | 2,693.77 | 2,739.45 | 2,785.91 | 2,833.16 | 2,918.15 |
| Payout Ratio | 85.43% | 86.35% | 87.26% | 88.17% | 89.09% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,225.30 | 2,287.22 | 2,350.60 | 2,415.48 | 2,481.88 | 2,549.84 | 2,699.29 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 0.70% | 1.70% | 2.70% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,129.77 | 2,150.92 | 2,172.07 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,038.12 | 2,078.80 | 2,119.89 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,950.20 | 2,008.88 | 2,068.73 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,865.87 | 1,941.10 | 2,018.59 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,785.01 | 1,875.42 | 1,969.46 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 56,632.18 | 59,500.63 | 62,484.15 |
| Equity Value (M) | 66,401.16 | 69,555.76 | 72,832.89 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,673.01 | 4,673.01 | 4,673.01 |
| Fair Value | $14.21 | $14.88 | $15.59 |
| Upside / Downside | 91.76% | 100.87% | 110.34% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |