Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.,Ltd (600039.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.97 - $175.57$164.54
Multi-Stage$26.53 - $29.04$27.76
Blended Fair Value$96.15
Current Price$8.09
Upside1,088.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.20%55.15%0.700.650.260.140.030.020.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth--7.71%150.86%89.16%360.49%43.61%0.00%19.56%0.00%0.00%100.00%
Dividend Yield--8.77%8.32%2.61%1.83%0.68%0.75%0.73%0.64%0.48%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,736.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,996.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,740.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,547.35967.09580.26
Cash Retained (M)4,740.364,740.364,740.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,547.35-967.09-580.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,193.013,773.264,160.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,763.648,763.648,763.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.97$164.54$175.57
Upside / Downside900.90%1,933.82%2,070.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,736.768,239.658,775.239,345.619,953.0810,600.0310,918.03
Payout Ratio38.73%48.98%59.24%69.49%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,996.404,036.075,198.246,494.437,937.179,540.0310,099.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,756.973,792.583,828.19
Year 2 PV (M)4,504.164,589.954,676.55
Year 3 PV (M)5,238.155,388.515,541.73
Year 4 PV (M)5,959.106,188.276,423.99
Year 5 PV (M)6,667.206,989.237,323.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)206,361.77216,329.12226,677.95
Equity Value (M)232,487.35243,277.67254,471.99
Shares Outstanding (M)8,763.648,763.648,763.64
Fair Value$26.53$27.76$29.04
Upside / Downside227.92%243.14%258.93%

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