Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hong Leong Bank Berhad (5819.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.28 - $411.24$365.55
Multi-Stage$54.88 - $60.12$57.46
Blended Fair Value$211.50
Current Price$19.60
Upside979.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.30%7.22%0.710.630.580.530.350.500.480.460.410.37
YoY Growth--12.73%8.66%9.02%53.06%-30.42%4.20%4.36%12.20%9.55%5.63%
Dividend Yield--3.60%2.91%2.96%2.58%1.83%3.30%2.91%2.22%2.57%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,273.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)574.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,699.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)854.69534.18320.51
Cash Retained (M)3,699.433,699.433,699.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-854.69-534.18-320.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,844.743,165.253,378.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.272,061.272,061.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.541.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.541.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Fair Value$114.28$365.55$411.24
Upside / Downside483.05%1,765.05%1,998.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,273.444,539.314,821.715,121.695,440.325,778.785,952.15
Payout Ratio13.43%28.75%44.06%59.37%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)574.011,304.852,124.413,040.894,063.185,200.905,505.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Year 1 PV (M)1,210.861,222.361,233.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,829.361,864.301,899.57
Year 3 PV (M)2,429.922,499.862,571.13
Year 4 PV (M)3,012.923,129.103,248.61
Year 5 PV (M)3,578.753,752.073,932.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)101,068.49105,963.31111,045.96
Equity Value (M)113,130.30118,431.00123,931.19
Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.272,061.272,061.27
Fair Value$54.88$57.46$60.12
Upside / Downside180.02%193.14%206.75%

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