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Definitive Analysis

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Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. (5434.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$823.66 - $3,955.39$1,785.56
Multi-Stage$452.17 - $493.95$472.68
Blended Fair Value$1,129.12
Current Price$314.00
Upside259.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.40%12.97%9.679.318.197.456.054.943.914.253.252.99
YoY Growth--3.85%13.64%10.00%23.08%22.64%26.19%-8.00%30.77%8.57%4.83%
Dividend Yield--3.71%4.15%4.37%4.41%4.47%5.49%4.94%5.08%3.33%5.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,880.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,293.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,587.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)776.19485.12291.07
Cash Retained (M)1,587.591,587.591,587.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-776.19-485.12-291.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.411,102.481,296.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)195.13195.13195.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.165.656.64
LTM Dividend per Share11.7511.7511.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.165.656.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.9117.4018.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$823.66$1,785.56$3,955.39
Upside / Downside162.31%468.65%1,159.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,880.954,133.214,401.864,687.994,992.715,317.235,476.75
Payout Ratio59.09%65.27%71.46%77.64%83.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,293.352,697.913,145.383,639.614,184.814,785.515,065.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,485.242,508.802,532.36
Year 2 PV (M)2,669.042,719.872,771.19
Year 3 PV (M)2,844.972,926.643,009.86
Year 4 PV (M)3,013.283,129.163,248.36
Year 5 PV (M)3,174.193,327.503,486.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,046.7277,623.2081,336.57
Equity Value (M)88,233.4492,235.1896,385.02
Shares Outstanding (M)195.13195.13195.13
Fair Value$452.17$472.68$493.95
Upside / Downside44.00%50.54%57.31%

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