Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AEON Credit Service (M) Berhad (5139.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.13 - $132.40$62.20
Multi-Stage$18.14 - $19.88$19.00
Blended Fair Value$40.60
Current Price$4.85
Upside737.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.10%6.90%0.280.250.240.240.120.220.210.190.170.17
YoY Growth--14.14%2.06%0.00%109.88%-47.56%6.41%6.76%14.42%1.09%15.66%
Dividend Yield--4.93%3.42%4.25%3.33%0.97%2.45%1.29%1.31%1.32%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.5642.8525.71
Cash Retained (M)270.05270.05270.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.56-42.85-25.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.49227.20244.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)510.62510.62510.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Fair Value$28.13$62.20$132.40
Upside / Downside479.93%1,182.38%2,629.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.82362.01382.28403.69426.30450.17463.67
Payout Ratio21.23%34.98%48.74%62.49%76.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.76126.63186.31252.27325.03405.15428.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Year 1 PV (M)117.67118.80119.92
Year 2 PV (M)160.87163.96167.08
Year 3 PV (M)202.41208.27214.24
Year 4 PV (M)242.33251.73261.41
Year 5 PV (M)280.69294.37308.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,260.798,663.299,081.33
Equity Value (M)9,264.779,700.4210,152.55
Shares Outstanding (M)510.62510.62510.62
Fair Value$18.14$19.00$19.88
Upside / Downside274.11%291.70%309.96%

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