Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lion Corporation (4912.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$893.30 - $1,486.98$1,155.15
Multi-Stage$1,174.24 - $1,286.67$1,229.40
Blended Fair Value$1,192.27
Current Price$1,490.00
Upside-19.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.64%10.49%26.3326.6824.9125.2023.0920.9920.9815.7310.449.61
YoY Growth---1.30%7.11%-1.13%9.12%10.02%0.02%33.36%50.74%8.61%-1.04%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.94%1.74%1.85%1.07%0.91%0.90%0.73%0.52%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,876.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,509.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,367.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,175.202,609.501,565.70
Cash Retained (M)13,367.0013,367.0013,367.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,175.20-2,609.50-1,565.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,191.8010,757.5011,801.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.79276.79276.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.2138.8742.64
LTM Dividend per Share27.1327.1327.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.2138.8742.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.3465.9969.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$893.30$1,155.15$1,486.98
Upside / Downside-40.05%-22.47%-0.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,876.0021,399.9921,937.1322,487.7523,052.1923,630.8024,339.73
Payout Ratio35.97%46.78%57.58%68.39%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,509.0010,009.9812,631.7815,378.8818,255.9321,267.7222,514.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)9,147.059,237.169,327.27
Year 2 PV (M)10,547.7610,756.6010,967.49
Year 3 PV (M)11,734.6012,084.8312,441.96
Year 4 PV (M)12,729.0413,238.0913,762.25
Year 5 PV (M)13,550.6614,231.4014,939.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)267,308.57280,737.17294,700.11
Equity Value (M)325,017.69340,285.25356,138.30
Shares Outstanding (M)276.79276.79276.79
Fair Value$1,174.24$1,229.40$1,286.67
Upside / Downside-21.19%-17.49%-13.65%

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