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Definitive Analysis

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YAMADA Consulting Group Co.,Ltd. (4792.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,649.82 - $24,878.23$23,314.55
Multi-Stage$3,498.54 - $3,825.09$3,658.83
Blended Fair Value$13,486.69
Current Price$1,860.00
Upside625.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.07%13.54%80.8765.8150.8039.8037.7945.7545.7436.0331.1127.50
YoY Growth--22.89%29.55%27.64%5.30%-17.38%0.02%26.93%15.84%13.12%21.04%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.15%3.15%3.63%3.22%3.41%2.22%1.13%1.65%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,389.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,469.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)919.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)477.93298.71179.22
Cash Retained (M)919.89919.89919.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-477.93-298.71-179.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)441.96621.18740.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.1432.5238.77
LTM Dividend per Share76.9476.9476.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.1432.5238.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.08109.46115.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,649.82$23,314.55$24,878.23
Upside / Downside365.04%1,153.47%1,237.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,389.652,544.982,710.402,886.583,074.213,274.033,372.25
Payout Ratio61.51%67.20%72.90%78.60%84.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,469.761,710.331,975.972,268.912,591.592,946.633,119.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,587.581,602.631,617.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,702.511,734.941,767.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,814.601,866.691,919.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,923.911,997.902,074.00
Year 5 PV (M)2,030.482,128.552,230.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,772.5260,562.9563,460.18
Equity Value (M)66,831.6069,893.6673,069.68
Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
Fair Value$3,498.54$3,658.83$3,825.09
Upside / Downside88.09%96.71%105.65%

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