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Definitive Analysis

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KeyHolder, Inc. (4712.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,066.11 - $23,039.12$21,591.03
Multi-Stage$3,180.79 - $3,481.40$3,328.33
Blended Fair Value$12,459.68
Current Price$738.00
Upside1,588.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS15.00%0.00%26.9511.6011.8611.5414.8713.400.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--132.22%-2.12%2.78%-22.43%11.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.65%1.21%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,180.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)698.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,481.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)436.03272.52163.51
Cash Retained (M)1,481.301,481.301,481.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-436.03-272.52-163.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,045.271,208.781,317.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8218.8218.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.5464.2370.02
LTM Dividend per Share37.1437.1437.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.5464.2370.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.68101.37107.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,066.11$21,591.03$23,039.12
Upside / Downside992.97%2,825.61%3,021.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,180.152,321.862,472.782,633.512,804.692,986.993,076.60
Payout Ratio32.06%43.64%55.23%66.82%78.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)698.851,013.361,365.791,759.772,199.192,688.292,845.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)940.70949.62958.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,176.961,199.381,222.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,407.741,448.151,489.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,633.121,695.921,760.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,853.201,942.712,035.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,848.1655,400.7558,051.03
Equity Value (M)59,859.8862,636.5365,517.06
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8218.8218.82
Fair Value$3,180.79$3,328.33$3,481.40
Upside / Downside331.00%350.99%371.73%

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