Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Al Khaleej Training and Education Company (4290.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.31 - $10.48$7.34
Multi-Stage$5.96 - $6.54$6.24
Blended Fair Value$6.79
Current Price$25.50
Upside-73.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.080.040.170.170.000.310.310.620.43
YoY Growth---100.00%97.01%-75.32%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-50.00%42.86%-6.67%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.31%0.26%0.93%0.69%0.00%2.24%1.79%3.65%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.172.601.56
Cash Retained (M)20.0720.0720.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.17-2.60-1.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.9017.4618.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.0065.0065.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Fair Value$5.31$7.34$10.48
Upside / Downside-79.19%-71.22%-58.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.8321.6022.3923.2124.0624.9525.69
Payout Ratio3.67%20.94%38.20%55.47%72.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.774.528.5512.8817.5022.4523.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)4.164.204.24
Year 2 PV (M)7.247.387.53
Year 3 PV (M)10.0310.3310.63
Year 4 PV (M)12.5513.0413.55
Year 5 PV (M)14.8115.5416.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)338.59355.40372.88
Equity Value (M)387.38405.90425.14
Shares Outstanding (M)65.0065.0065.00
Fair Value$5.96$6.24$6.54
Upside / Downside-76.63%-75.51%-74.35%

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