Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Air Water Inc. (4088.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,849.34 - $43,797.47$41,044.64
Multi-Stage$6,462.31 - $7,074.34$6,762.70
Blended Fair Value$23,903.67
Current Price$2,153.00
Upside1,010.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.49%11.06%65.9961.9756.9448.9345.6935.0634.3531.7523.9524.81
YoY Growth--6.49%8.83%16.36%7.11%30.32%2.05%8.20%32.58%-3.45%7.27%
Dividend Yield--3.07%2.85%2.86%2.87%2.67%2.30%1.86%1.56%1.16%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50,437.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,608.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33,829.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,087.406,304.633,782.78
Cash Retained (M)33,829.0033,829.0033,829.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,087.40-6,304.63-3,782.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,741.6027,524.3830,046.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)229.02229.02229.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share103.66120.18131.19
LTM Dividend per Share72.5272.5272.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share103.66120.18131.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend176.18192.70203.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,849.34$41,044.64$43,797.47
Upside / Downside775.49%1,806.39%1,934.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50,437.0053,715.4157,206.9160,925.3664,885.5069,103.0671,176.15
Payout Ratio32.93%44.34%55.76%67.17%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,608.0023,818.7931,896.8140,924.3450,990.6962,192.7565,837.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22,157.9522,367.9822,578.01
Year 2 PV (M)27,603.7028,129.4728,660.20
Year 3 PV (M)32,946.6833,892.4634,856.17
Year 4 PV (M)38,188.3439,656.9641,167.53
Year 5 PV (M)43,330.1045,422.9647,595.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,315,794.351,379,347.711,445,333.41
Equity Value (M)1,480,021.131,548,817.551,620,191.25
Shares Outstanding (M)229.02229.02229.02
Fair Value$6,462.31$6,762.70$7,074.34
Upside / Downside200.15%214.11%228.58%

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