Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.77 - $4.73 | $3.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $5.52 - $6.06 | $5.78 |
| Blended Fair Value | $4.70 | |
| Current Price | $3.78 | |
| Upside | 24.37% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.84% | -1.81% | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 16.92% | 8.33% | 166.67% | -66.67% | 12.50% | -33.33% | 50.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -16.53% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.61% | 3.43% | 3.99% | 1.27% | 2.87% | 4.44% | 10.56% | 13.64% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 89.83 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 80.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 17.97 | 11.23 | 6.74 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.83 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -17.97 | -11.23 | -6.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -8.13 | -1.39 | 3.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 400.00 | 400.00 | 400.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -0.14% | 0.86% | 1.86% |
| Fair Value | $2.77 | $3.62 | $4.73 |
| Upside / Downside | -26.72% | -4.27% | 25.03% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 89.83 | 90.61 | 91.39 | 92.17 | 92.96 | 93.76 | 96.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 89.05% | 89.24% | 89.43% | 89.62% | 89.81% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 80.00 | 80.86 | 81.73 | 82.60 | 83.49 | 84.38 | 89.33 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -0.14% | 0.86% | 1.86% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 75.29 | 76.04 | 76.79 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 70.85 | 72.28 | 73.72 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 66.68 | 68.70 | 70.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 62.75 | 65.30 | 67.93 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 59.05 | 62.07 | 65.20 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,873.42 | 1,969.12 | 2,068.70 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,208.03 | 2,313.51 | 2,423.10 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 400.00 | 400.00 | 400.00 |
| Fair Value | $5.52 | $5.78 | $6.06 |
| Upside / Downside | 46.03% | 53.01% | 60.26% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |