Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AGS Corporation (3648.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,487.46 - $2,813.83$2,024.15
Multi-Stage$1,482.36 - $1,623.34$1,551.54
Blended Fair Value$1,787.84
Current Price$958.00
Upside86.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.63%5.41%16.1012.5611.6513.7711.6611.6811.6811.6411.1110.07
YoY Growth--28.20%7.78%-15.37%18.07%-0.17%0.04%0.30%4.78%10.34%5.89%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.19%1.53%1.88%1.31%1.39%1.76%1.34%1.38%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,601.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)265.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,335.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.37200.23120.14
Cash Retained (M)1,335.921,335.921,335.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.37-200.23-120.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,015.551,135.691,215.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.7916.7916.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share60.4867.6472.41
LTM Dividend per Share15.8415.8415.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share60.4867.6472.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.3283.4788.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Fair Value$1,487.46$2,024.15$2,813.83
Upside / Downside55.27%111.29%193.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,601.861,672.461,746.171,823.121,903.471,987.362,046.98
Payout Ratio16.60%31.28%45.96%60.64%75.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)265.94523.17802.561,105.551,433.701,788.631,893.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)476.63481.24485.85
Year 2 PV (M)666.12679.07692.14
Year 3 PV (M)835.98860.47885.44
Year 4 PV (M)987.681,026.441,066.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,122.581,177.921,235.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,801.6421,827.0922,892.59
Equity Value (M)24,890.6326,052.2327,257.77
Shares Outstanding (M)16.7916.7916.79
Fair Value$1,482.36$1,551.54$1,623.34
Upside / Downside54.73%61.96%69.45%

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