Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment Co., Ltd. (301552.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.76 - $30.45$24.73
Multi-Stage$44.05 - $48.48$46.22
Blended Fair Value$35.48
Current Price$40.91
Upside-13.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.020.000.210.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.5619.7211.83
Cash Retained (M)89.7889.7889.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.56-19.72-11.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.2270.0577.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.3373.3373.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.961.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.961.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.721.881.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.76$24.73$30.45
Upside / Downside-51.70%-39.55%-25.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.79156.22154.65153.11151.58150.06154.56
Payout Ratio43.10%52.48%61.86%71.24%80.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.0281.9995.67109.08122.20135.06142.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)76.1876.9677.73
Year 2 PV (M)82.6084.2986.00
Year 3 PV (M)87.5090.2092.96
Year 4 PV (M)91.0894.8698.75
Year 5 PV (M)93.5398.40103.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,798.812,944.553,096.29
Equity Value (M)3,229.693,389.263,555.22
Shares Outstanding (M)73.3373.3373.33
Fair Value$44.05$46.22$48.48
Upside / Downside7.66%12.98%18.51%

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