Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Ruijie Networks Co., Ltd. (301165.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.57 - $15.60$12.98
Multi-Stage$19.35 - $21.26$20.29
Blended Fair Value$16.63
Current Price$89.41
Upside-81.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.15%0.00%0.550.760.060.040.050.620.550.460.000.00
YoY Growth---26.84%1,150.16%42.38%-9.62%-92.38%11.81%18.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.11%2.65%0.17%0.16%0.18%2.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)842.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)365.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)477.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.56105.3563.21
Cash Retained (M)477.58477.58477.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.56-105.35-63.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)309.02372.23414.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)625.00625.00625.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.57$12.98$15.60
Upside / Downside-88.17%-85.48%-82.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)842.79834.36826.02817.75809.58801.48825.53
Payout Ratio43.33%52.67%62.00%71.33%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)365.21439.43512.13583.33653.06721.33763.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)402.78406.89411.00
Year 2 PV (M)430.26439.08448.00
Year 3 PV (M)449.20463.09477.27
Year 4 PV (M)460.95480.05499.74
Year 5 PV (M)466.67490.97516.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,884.0010,398.6810,934.59
Equity Value (M)12,093.8512,678.7613,286.86
Shares Outstanding (M)625.00625.00625.00
Fair Value$19.35$20.29$21.26
Upside / Downside-78.36%-77.31%-76.22%

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