Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Longhua New Material Co., Ltd. (301149.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.75 - $16.36$10.03
Multi-Stage$4.81 - $5.25$5.03
Blended Fair Value$7.53
Current Price$10.78
Upside-30.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS118.25%0.00%0.270.110.100.010.000.010.010.010.010.04
YoY Growth--140.95%12.00%1,361.72%0.00%-100.00%-46.54%68.47%-56.59%-62.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.44%0.96%0.91%0.04%0.00%0.02%0.04%0.02%0.06%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.0016.8810.13
Cash Retained (M)87.8787.8787.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.00-16.88-10.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.8771.0077.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.34433.34433.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.75$10.03$16.36
Upside / Downside-37.35%-6.93%51.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.00143.78153.12163.08173.68184.97190.52
Payout Ratio34.91%45.93%56.95%67.96%78.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.1366.0487.20110.83137.17166.47176.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.8060.3760.93
Year 2 PV (M)71.5072.8774.24
Year 3 PV (M)82.3084.6687.07
Year 4 PV (M)92.2495.7999.44
Year 5 PV (M)101.37106.26111.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,678.361,759.431,843.59
Equity Value (M)2,085.572,179.372,276.62
Shares Outstanding (M)433.34433.34433.34
Fair Value$4.81$5.03$5.25
Upside / Downside-55.35%-53.35%-51.26%

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