Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Arabian Cement Company (3010.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.97 - $12.74$10.83
Multi-Stage$26.94 - $29.69$28.29
Blended Fair Value$19.56
Current Price$22.02
Upside-11.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.55%-7.33%1.461.832.602.502.031.751.045.004.505.28
YoY Growth---20.32%-29.43%4.00%23.28%15.80%68.10%-79.16%11.11%-14.78%68.76%
Dividend Yield--5.37%5.78%7.16%5.84%4.66%7.01%4.13%14.28%11.84%11.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)140.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.1617.6010.56
Cash Retained (M)11.5011.5011.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.16-17.60-10.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.67-6.100.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.060.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.060.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-5.55%-4.55%-3.55%
Fair Value$8.97$10.83$12.74
Upside / Downside-59.27%-50.83%-42.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)140.82134.42128.30122.47116.90111.58114.93
Payout Ratio91.83%91.47%91.10%90.73%90.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.32122.95116.89111.12105.64100.42106.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-5.55%-4.55%-3.55%
Year 1 PV (M)114.43115.64116.86
Year 2 PV (M)101.26103.41105.59
Year 3 PV (M)89.5992.4795.41
Year 4 PV (M)79.2782.6986.21
Year 5 PV (M)70.1473.9377.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,239.312,360.392,486.65
Equity Value (M)2,694.012,828.542,968.60
Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
Fair Value$26.94$28.29$29.69
Upside / Downside22.34%28.45%34.81%

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