Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Xiangyang BOYA Precision Industrial Equipments Co., Ltd (300971.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.62 - $11.71$9.52
Multi-Stage$9.66 - $10.58$10.11
Blended Fair Value$9.82
Current Price$22.79
Upside-56.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.51%3.13%0.240.240.370.390.280.300.220.230.230.07
YoY Growth--1.54%-35.92%-6.08%38.38%-6.13%36.74%-2.76%-2.91%218.83%-58.33%
Dividend Yield--1.43%1.62%2.19%1.80%0.88%0.93%0.68%0.70%0.72%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.759.225.53
Cash Retained (M)52.1052.1052.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.75-9.22-5.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.3542.8846.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.3591.3591.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.470.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.470.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Fair Value$7.62$9.52$11.71
Upside / Downside-66.58%-58.21%-48.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.7575.3276.9378.5780.2581.9684.42
Payout Ratio29.36%41.49%53.62%65.75%77.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.6631.2541.2551.6662.4973.7678.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)28.2128.4928.77
Year 2 PV (M)33.6034.2734.94
Year 3 PV (M)37.9839.1240.28
Year 4 PV (M)41.4743.1444.85
Year 5 PV (M)44.1846.4148.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)697.20732.35768.92
Equity Value (M)882.64923.78966.49
Shares Outstanding (M)91.3591.3591.35
Fair Value$9.66$10.11$10.58
Upside / Downside-57.60%-55.63%-53.58%

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