Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

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Industry

Sector

Hiecise Precision Equipment Co.,Ltd. (300809.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.23 - $1.75$1.48
Multi-Stage$1.86 - $2.04$1.95
Blended Fair Value$1.72
Current Price$42.88
Upside-96.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.100.120.130.120.000.000.780.330.00
YoY Growth--19.00%-19.30%-3.80%7.66%0.00%-100.00%-99.99%139.29%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.21%0.40%0.54%0.53%1.22%0.00%0.00%4.63%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.455.903.54
Cash Retained (M)39.5239.5239.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.45-5.90-3.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0733.6135.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)257.30257.30257.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.23$1.48$1.75
Upside / Downside-97.14%-96.54%-95.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.2346.7646.2945.8345.3744.9246.27
Payout Ratio16.34%31.07%45.81%60.54%75.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.7214.5321.2127.7534.1540.4342.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.1113.2413.38
Year 2 PV (M)17.2617.6117.97
Year 3 PV (M)20.3721.0021.65
Year 4 PV (M)22.6223.5624.53
Year 5 PV (M)24.1625.4226.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)380.41400.21420.84
Equity Value (M)477.93501.06525.09
Shares Outstanding (M)257.30257.30257.30
Fair Value$1.86$1.95$2.04
Upside / Downside-95.67%-95.46%-95.24%

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