Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Senba Sensing Technology Co.,Ltd. (300701.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.61 - $9.86$6.56
Multi-Stage$3.48 - $3.79$3.63
Blended Fair Value$5.09
Current Price$12.74
Upside-60.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.28%15.73%0.100.000.110.230.100.080.110.120.080.07
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-50.20%140.03%24.99%-33.33%-1.05%51.60%1.62%228.02%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.00%1.16%2.35%0.76%0.59%0.99%0.89%1.36%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.777.984.79
Cash Retained (M)34.8634.8634.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.77-7.98-4.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0926.8830.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)263.07263.07263.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.61$6.56$9.86
Upside / Downside-63.84%-48.50%-22.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.8668.0172.4377.1482.1687.5090.12
Payout Ratio45.41%54.33%63.25%72.17%81.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0036.9545.8155.6766.6278.7583.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.2933.6133.92
Year 2 PV (M)37.1937.9038.61
Year 3 PV (M)40.7241.8943.08
Year 4 PV (M)43.9045.5947.32
Year 5 PV (M)46.7549.0151.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)712.34746.75782.47
Equity Value (M)914.19954.74996.76
Shares Outstanding (M)263.07263.07263.07
Fair Value$3.48$3.63$3.79
Upside / Downside-72.72%-71.51%-70.26%

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