Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Astro-century Education&Technology Co.,Ltd (300654.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.90 - $4.04$2.70
Multi-Stage$1.47 - $1.60$1.54
Blended Fair Value$2.12
Current Price$10.09
Upside-79.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.03%42.42%0.060.050.050.040.030.030.030.000.000.09
YoY Growth--16.81%0.00%19.05%47.33%7.14%5.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.78%4,915.39%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.38%0.65%0.76%0.58%0.48%0.29%0.00%0.03%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.454.662.79
Cash Retained (M)13.8113.8113.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.45-4.66-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.359.1511.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)368.21368.21368.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.90$2.70$4.04
Upside / Downside-81.16%-73.24%-60.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.2739.6942.2745.0247.9451.0652.59
Payout Ratio62.95%68.36%73.77%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4627.1331.1835.6440.5545.9548.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.4424.6724.90
Year 2 PV (M)25.2925.7726.26
Year 3 PV (M)26.0426.7827.55
Year 4 PV (M)26.6827.7128.76
Year 5 PV (M)27.2328.5429.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)412.11432.02452.69
Equity Value (M)541.78565.49590.06
Shares Outstanding (M)368.21368.21368.21
Fair Value$1.47$1.54$1.60
Upside / Downside-85.42%-84.78%-84.12%

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