Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Rianlon Corporation (300596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$282.54 - $436.99$409.52
Multi-Stage$71.36 - $78.15$74.69
Blended Fair Value$242.11
Current Price$39.04
Upside520.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.34%37.44%0.640.340.270.190.170.130.090.050.000.03
YoY Growth--85.93%25.91%42.33%11.98%35.82%47.71%55.71%0.00%-100.00%6.40%
Dividend Yield--2.10%1.42%0.59%0.42%0.43%0.42%0.22%0.27%0.00%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)504.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)358.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.9163.0737.84
Cash Retained (M)358.58358.58358.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.91-63.07-37.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)257.68295.52320.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)229.62229.62229.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.291.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.291.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.922.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$282.54$409.52$436.99
Upside / Downside623.72%948.98%1,019.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)504.54537.34572.26609.46649.08691.27712.01
Payout Ratio28.93%41.14%53.36%65.57%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.96221.08305.35399.63504.89622.14658.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)206.30208.26210.21
Year 2 PV (M)265.89270.96276.07
Year 3 PV (M)324.74334.06343.56
Year 4 PV (M)382.85397.57412.71
Year 5 PV (M)440.22461.49483.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,764.5415,477.6816,218.10
Equity Value (M)16,384.5417,150.0017,944.22
Shares Outstanding (M)229.62229.62229.62
Fair Value$71.36$74.69$78.15
Upside / Downside82.77%91.31%100.17%

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