Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

GuangDong HongTeo Technology Co.,Ltd. Class A (300176.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.83 - $12.77$11.96
Multi-Stage$7.03 - $7.74$7.38
Blended Fair Value$9.67
Current Price$7.15
Upside35.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.58%10.02%0.070.090.080.060.090.090.330.060.030.01
YoY Growth---16.75%14.85%19.51%-27.29%-4.82%-72.50%497.50%100.00%100.00%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.56%1.14%1.14%1.39%1.31%0.70%0.14%0.18%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.213.251.95
Cash Retained (M)6.716.716.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.21-3.25-1.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.503.454.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)387.58387.58387.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate-0.30%-0.30%-0.30%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Fair Value$10.83$11.96$12.77
Upside / Downside51.43%67.27%78.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.0426.4926.9527.4127.8828.3729.22
Payout Ratio74.24%77.39%80.54%83.70%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.3320.5021.7022.9424.2225.5327.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.30%-0.30%-0.30%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)20.3620.5620.76
Year 2 PV (M)21.4121.8322.26
Year 3 PV (M)22.4723.1523.84
Year 4 PV (M)23.5624.5125.48
Year 5 PV (M)24.6625.9127.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,610.852,743.052,880.55
Equity Value (M)2,723.302,859.013,000.11
Shares Outstanding (M)387.58387.58387.58
Fair Value$7.03$7.38$7.74
Upside / Downside-1.73%3.17%8.26%

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