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Definitive Analysis

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Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry Inc. (2373.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.81 - $28.70$23.44
Multi-Stage$39.93 - $43.94$41.90
Blended Fair Value$32.67
Current Price$27.59
Upside18.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS6.88%0.00%0.490.380.890.350.460.350.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--29.30%-57.41%151.69%-23.98%32.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%3.76%3.39%1.46%1.86%1.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)487.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)285.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.5961.0036.60
Cash Retained (M)285.85285.85285.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.59-61.00-36.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)188.26224.85249.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.33230.33230.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.981.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.981.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.81$23.44$28.70
Upside / Downside-31.81%-15.03%4.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)487.97483.09478.26473.48468.74464.05477.98
Payout Ratio41.42%51.14%60.85%70.57%80.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.12247.04291.03334.12376.32417.65442.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)228.91231.25233.58
Year 2 PV (M)249.89255.02260.19
Year 3 PV (M)265.84274.06282.45
Year 4 PV (M)277.45288.95300.80
Year 5 PV (M)285.32300.18315.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,890.178,301.038,728.83
Equity Value (M)9,197.599,650.4910,121.51
Shares Outstanding (M)230.33230.33230.33
Fair Value$39.93$41.90$43.94
Upside / Downside44.73%51.86%59.27%

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