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Definitive Analysis

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TSRC Corporation (2103.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.41 - $12.29$9.56
Multi-Stage$14.91 - $16.37$15.63
Blended Fair Value$12.60
Current Price$17.95
Upside-29.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.58%-9.74%0.551.262.670.520.630.970.951.031.151.67
YoY Growth---56.25%-52.64%409.17%-17.32%-34.46%2.06%-8.11%-10.65%-31.05%8.62%
Dividend Yield--2.85%5.42%9.45%1.50%2.24%6.64%3.41%3.38%3.30%6.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)538.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)464.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.6467.2840.37
Cash Retained (M)73.4073.4073.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.64-67.28-40.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)-34.246.1233.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)835.70835.70835.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-0.44%0.56%1.56%
Fair Value$7.41$9.56$12.29
Upside / Downside-58.73%-46.72%-31.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)538.21541.23544.27547.32550.40553.49570.09
Payout Ratio86.36%87.09%87.82%88.54%89.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)464.81471.36477.96484.63491.35498.14527.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-0.44%0.56%1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)438.25442.65447.05
Year 2 PV (M)413.17421.51429.94
Year 3 PV (M)389.50401.36413.45
Year 4 PV (M)367.16382.14397.57
Year 5 PV (M)346.09363.82382.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,509.4811,047.9811,608.33
Equity Value (M)12,463.6513,059.4513,678.60
Shares Outstanding (M)835.70835.70835.70
Fair Value$14.91$15.63$16.37
Upside / Downside-16.91%-12.94%-8.81%

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