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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (1954.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,509.54 - $66,858.64$62,654.15
Multi-Stage$9,949.17 - $10,893.82$10,412.78
Blended Fair Value$36,533.46
Current Price$3,370.00
Upside984.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142012
DPS8.26%3.82%76.230.0079.0178.8879.1551.2651.1338.5112.8137.52
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.17%-0.34%54.40%0.26%32.76%200.52%-65.84%-28.39%
Dividend Yield--2.14%0.00%2.77%2.50%2.65%1.34%2.20%1.56%0.57%2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,899.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,183.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,016.40635.25381.15
Cash Retained (M)3,183.003,183.003,183.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,016.40-635.25-381.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,166.602,547.752,801.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.0615.0615.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share143.86169.17186.04
LTM Dividend per Share126.09126.09126.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share143.86169.17186.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend269.95295.26312.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Fair Value$21,509.54$62,654.15$66,858.64
Upside / Downside538.27%1,759.17%1,883.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,082.005,392.045,720.996,070.016,440.336,833.237,038.23
Payout Ratio37.37%47.89%58.42%68.95%79.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,899.002,582.453,342.224,185.085,118.356,149.916,510.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)2,403.792,426.662,449.53
Year 2 PV (M)2,895.782,951.153,007.04
Year 3 PV (M)3,375.203,472.463,571.57
Year 4 PV (M)3,842.293,990.624,143.21
Year 5 PV (M)4,297.294,505.654,722.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,025.75139,475.81146,173.69
Equity Value (M)149,840.09156,822.36164,067.06
Shares Outstanding (M)15.0615.0615.06
Fair Value$9,949.17$10,412.78$10,893.82
Upside / Downside195.23%208.98%223.26%

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