Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TOA Corporation (1885.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36,234.07 - $42,689.88$40,006.67
Multi-Stage$25,784.36 - $28,302.91$27,020.10
Blended Fair Value$33,513.38
Current Price$1,513.00
Upside2,115.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS39.20%22.89%41.1325.2724.7719.3112.377.875.270.0010.495.25
YoY Growth--62.72%2.04%28.28%56.07%57.21%49.28%0.00%-100.00%100.00%0.24%
Dividend Yield--2.72%2.46%3.19%3.11%2.01%2.02%1.24%0.00%2.36%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,020.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,629.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,390.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,404.002,127.501,276.50
Cash Retained (M)15,390.5015,390.5015,390.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,404.00-2,127.50-1,276.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,986.5013,263.0014,114.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.2979.2979.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share151.17167.27178.01
LTM Dividend per Share20.5520.5520.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share151.17167.27178.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend171.73187.82198.56
WACC / Discount Rate1.29%1.29%1.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36,234.07$40,006.67$42,689.88
Upside / Downside2,294.85%2,544.19%2,721.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,020.0018,126.3019,304.5120,559.3021,895.6623,318.8824,018.44
Payout Ratio9.57%25.66%41.74%57.83%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,629.504,651.078,058.5611,889.3616,184.1320,986.9922,217.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.29%1.29%1.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,548.584,591.694,634.81
Year 2 PV (M)7,707.317,854.118,002.30
Year 3 PV (M)11,120.5711,439.8011,765.09
Year 4 PV (M)14,804.0615,373.3815,958.97
Year 5 PV (M)18,774.3219,681.1320,622.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,987,470.382,083,465.942,183,135.48
Equity Value (M)2,044,425.212,142,406.052,244,119.28
Shares Outstanding (M)79.2979.2979.29
Fair Value$25,784.36$27,020.10$28,302.91
Upside / Downside1,604.19%1,685.86%1,770.65%

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