Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Limited (1651.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$328.80 - $662.93$621.26
Multi-Stage$102.62 - $112.31$107.38
Blended Fair Value$364.32
Current Price$22.05
Upside1,552.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.59%0.00%0.780.740.720.540.260.270.320.040.070.05
YoY Growth--5.25%3.13%32.89%104.54%-2.27%-14.85%783.37%-48.96%52.20%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.53%8.89%10.31%7.41%3.39%4.88%4.05%0.38%1.24%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,262.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)575.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)687.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.48157.8094.68
Cash Retained (M)687.38687.38687.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.48-157.80-94.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)434.90529.58592.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)378.71378.71378.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.401.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.521.521.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.401.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$328.80$621.26$662.93
Upside / Downside1,391.16%2,717.53%2,906.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,262.391,344.441,431.831,524.901,624.021,729.581,781.47
Payout Ratio45.55%54.44%63.33%72.22%81.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)575.01731.90906.771,101.281,317.241,556.621,647.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)681.70688.17694.63
Year 2 PV (M)786.65801.63816.76
Year 3 PV (M)889.86915.41941.44
Year 4 PV (M)991.361,029.491,068.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,091.181,143.881,198.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,423.4036,086.0637,812.36
Equity Value (M)38,864.1540,664.6442,532.48
Shares Outstanding (M)378.71378.71378.71
Fair Value$102.62$107.38$112.31
Upside / Downside365.41%386.97%409.34%

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