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Definitive Analysis

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Karrie International Holdings Limited (1050.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.30 - $3.94$3.01
Multi-Stage$4.18 - $4.59$4.38
Blended Fair Value$3.70
Current Price$0.82
Upside350.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-6.04%15.94%0.060.030.080.110.110.090.100.070.040.03
YoY Growth--116.67%-62.50%-29.70%7.88%18.82%-12.60%51.24%67.91%14.08%136.67%
Dividend Yield--7.91%6.17%8.77%11.02%10.12%12.38%11.87%8.25%6.25%10.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)374.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)222.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.8346.7728.06
Cash Retained (M)151.79151.79151.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.83-46.77-28.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.96105.02123.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,025.692,025.692,025.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Fair Value$2.30$3.01$3.94
Upside / Downside180.91%267.51%381.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)374.14378.52382.96387.45391.99396.58408.48
Payout Ratio59.43%65.54%71.66%77.77%83.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)222.36248.10274.42301.33328.82356.92377.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)230.45232.75235.05
Year 2 PV (M)236.76241.51246.30
Year 3 PV (M)241.47248.77256.22
Year 4 PV (M)244.75254.67264.89
Year 5 PV (M)246.76259.32272.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,261.587,631.358,016.02
Equity Value (M)8,461.758,868.369,290.88
Shares Outstanding (M)2,025.692,025.692,025.69
Fair Value$4.18$4.38$4.59
Upside / Downside409.42%433.89%459.33%

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