Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Banca Sistema S.p.A. (0R9H.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.93 - $83.73$78.47
Multi-Stage$11.88 - $13.01$12.43
Blended Fair Value$45.45
Current Price$1.75
Upside2,497.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.68%22.19%0.070.060.070.170.000.090.090.080.050.02
YoY Growth--0.15%-9.57%-58.54%0.00%-100.00%1.17%13.15%43.44%116.08%180.11%
Dividend Yield--4.09%4.03%5.88%14.19%0.00%5.73%5.66%2.94%1.89%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.774.232.54
Cash Retained (M)28.6028.6028.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.77-4.23-2.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.8424.3826.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.3480.3480.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.93$78.47$83.73
Upside / Downside1,782.00%4,384.04%4,684.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.8336.0338.3740.8643.5246.3547.74
Payout Ratio15.44%30.35%45.27%60.18%75.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.2210.9417.3724.5932.6841.7144.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.1610.2610.36
Year 2 PV (M)15.0015.2915.58
Year 3 PV (M)19.7420.3120.89
Year 4 PV (M)24.3925.3326.29
Year 5 PV (M)28.9430.3331.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)855.86897.20940.12
Equity Value (M)954.10998.721,045.02
Shares Outstanding (M)80.3480.3480.34
Fair Value$11.88$12.43$13.01
Upside / Downside578.58%610.31%643.24%

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