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Definitive Analysis

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Jungfraubahn Holding AG (0QNG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$725.27 - $2,957.51$1,242.65
Multi-Stage$612.60 - $670.90$641.21
Blended Fair Value$941.93
Current Price$202.00
Upside366.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.76%13.43%6.523.710.000.000.002.882.482.172.061.85
YoY Growth--75.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.27%14.31%5.06%11.40%0.06%
Dividend Yield--3.75%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.74%1.90%1.70%2.11%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7217.3210.39
Cash Retained (M)80.0980.0980.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.72-17.32-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.3862.7769.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.2711.1012.33
LTM Dividend per Share10.3510.3510.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.2711.1012.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.6121.4522.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate4.02%5.02%6.02%
Fair Value$725.27$1,242.65$2,957.51
Upside / Downside259.04%515.17%1,364.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.58145.54152.85160.52168.59177.05182.36
Payout Ratio42.20%51.76%61.32%70.88%80.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.4975.3493.73113.78135.61159.35168.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate4.02%5.02%6.02%
Year 1 PV (M)69.8470.5271.19
Year 2 PV (M)80.5682.1283.69
Year 3 PV (M)90.6793.3196.00
Year 4 PV (M)100.19104.10108.12
Year 5 PV (M)109.14114.49120.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,012.373,159.973,313.31
Equity Value (M)3,462.773,624.503,792.35
Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
Fair Value$612.60$641.21$670.90
Upside / Downside203.27%217.43%232.13%

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