Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nutrien Ltd. (0NHS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.56 - $79.91$60.97
Multi-Stage$73.27 - $80.34$76.74
Blended Fair Value$68.85
Current Price$58.24
Upside18.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%-0.73%2.172.112.112.142.112.091.950.671.652.46
YoY Growth--2.71%0.10%-1.34%1.46%0.78%7.35%188.48%-59.21%-32.81%5.52%
Dividend Yield--4.36%3.85%2.86%2.06%3.91%6.16%3.65%1.47%3.02%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,803.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,059.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)743.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)360.77225.48135.29
Cash Retained (M)743.97743.97743.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-360.77-225.48-135.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)383.20518.49608.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)488.96488.96488.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.781.061.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.172.172.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.781.061.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$46.56$60.97$79.91
Upside / Downside-20.06%4.69%37.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,803.861,836.611,869.951,903.911,938.471,973.672,032.88
Payout Ratio58.76%65.01%71.25%77.50%83.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,059.881,193.891,332.411,475.581,623.501,776.301,880.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)1,102.701,113.641,124.58
Year 2 PV (M)1,136.651,159.311,182.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,162.631,197.571,233.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,181.481,229.061,278.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,193.941,254.341,317.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,048.8731,569.0133,150.07
Equity Value (M)35,826.2737,522.9339,285.27
Shares Outstanding (M)488.96488.96488.96
Fair Value$73.27$76.74$80.34
Upside / Downside25.81%31.77%37.95%

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