Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $254.19 - $545.03 | $362.27 |
| Multi-Stage | $208.44 - $227.87 | $217.98 |
| Blended Fair Value | $290.12 | |
| Current Price | $158.10 | |
| Upside | 83.51% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.66% | 5.83% | 3.11 | 2.88 | 2.69 | 2.51 | 2.38 | 2.26 | 2.13 | 2.54 | 1.94 | 2.32 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.93% | 7.33% | 7.09% | 5.33% | 5.63% | 5.65% | -16.00% | 30.72% | -16.39% | 31.65% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.11% | 2.36% | 2.40% | 1.85% | 2.31% | 2.99% | 2.47% | 3.42% | 2.69% | 3.56% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,122.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 517.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,605.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 424.40 | 265.25 | 159.15 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,605.00 | 1,605.00 | 1,605.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -424.40 | -265.25 | -159.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,180.60 | 1,339.75 | 1,445.85 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 157.43 | 157.43 | 157.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 7.50 | 8.51 | 9.18 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.28 | 3.28 | 3.28 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 7.50 | 8.51 | 9.18 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.78 | 11.79 | 12.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.66% | 5.66% | 6.66% |
| Fair Value | $254.19 | $362.27 | $545.03 |
| Upside / Downside | 60.78% | 129.14% | 244.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,122.00 | 2,242.06 | 2,368.92 | 2,502.95 | 2,644.57 | 2,794.20 | 2,878.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 24.36% | 37.49% | 50.62% | 63.75% | 76.87% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 517.00 | 840.57 | 1,199.11 | 1,595.52 | 2,032.96 | 2,514.78 | 2,662.18 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.66% | 5.66% | 6.66% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 763.18 | 770.48 | 777.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 988.47 | 1,007.45 | 1,026.61 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,194.16 | 1,228.72 | 1,263.94 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,381.47 | 1,435.03 | 1,490.13 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,551.55 | 1,627.11 | 1,705.58 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 26,934.92 | 28,246.55 | 29,608.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 32,813.76 | 34,315.33 | 35,872.82 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 157.43 | 157.43 | 157.43 |
| Fair Value | $208.44 | $217.98 | $227.87 |
| Upside / Downside | 31.84% | 37.87% | 44.13% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |