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Definitive Analysis

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C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (0HQW.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.54 - $110.17$83.55
Multi-Stage$101.20 - $111.05$106.03
Blended Fair Value$94.79
Current Price$132.40
Upside-28.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.19%3.21%2.422.392.342.281.722.282.182.122.021.93
YoY Growth--1.10%2.19%2.88%32.09%-24.42%4.74%2.71%5.21%4.17%9.58%
Dividend Yield--2.36%3.26%2.36%2.11%1.81%3.45%2.47%2.26%2.61%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)600.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)301.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)298.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)120.0175.0145.00
Cash Retained (M)298.50298.50298.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-120.01-75.01-45.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.48223.49253.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.77121.77121.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.842.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.482.482.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.842.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.944.314.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate0.78%1.78%2.78%
Fair Value$63.54$83.55$110.17
Upside / Downside-52.01%-36.89%-16.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)600.07610.77621.66632.74644.02655.51675.17
Payout Ratio50.26%58.20%66.15%74.10%82.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)301.57355.49411.25468.88528.43589.96624.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate0.78%1.78%2.78%
Year 1 PV (M)328.86332.13335.39
Year 2 PV (M)351.94358.96366.05
Year 3 PV (M)371.20382.36393.74
Year 4 PV (M)387.01402.60418.65
Year 5 PV (M)399.70419.93440.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,484.6711,015.2611,567.11
Equity Value (M)12,323.3912,911.2313,521.91
Shares Outstanding (M)121.77121.77121.77
Fair Value$101.20$106.03$111.05
Upside / Downside-23.56%-19.92%-16.13%

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